Turo Breakeven: How Many Days Must Your Car Rent to Profit?

Building a financial forecast for Turo might feel like guesswork, but it is actually a simple exercise in tracking three numbers: Revenue, Fixed Costs, and Variable Costs.

A good forecast doesn't just predict how much money you will make; it acts as an early warning system. It tells you if your daily price is too low to cover your next set of tires or if you can afford to finance a second vehicle.

The Simple Turo Forecast Equation

At its core, your financial model is a basic subtraction problem:

To build this model, you should look at your business in monthly "buckets." Use a simple spreadsheet with 12 columns (one for each month) to account for the seasonality of your local market.

Step 1: Project Your Revenue

Revenue is the hardest number to predict, so be conservative. Most experienced hosts use a Utilization x ADR model.

• Average Daily Rate (ADR): Look at the "Carculator" or similar listings to see what your car earns per day.
• Days Booked (Utilization): In your first six months, assume 50% to 60% utilization (15-18 days per month). Do not assume 100%—your car needs downtime for cleaning and maintenance.

The Calculation: If your ADR is $60 and you expect 15 days of bookings: $60 times 15 = $900$ Estimated Monthly Revenue.

Step 2: List Your Fixed Costs

Fixed costs are the "staying in business" fees. You pay these even if the car never leaves your driveway.

• Car Payment: The principal and interest on your loan.
• Off-Trip Insurance: Your personal or commercial "Period 1" policy.
• Fixed Tech: Fees for GPS trackers (like Bouncie or Moovn) or toll pass subscriptions.
• Software: Any automated messaging or fleet management tools you use.

Step 3: Estimate Your Variable Costs

Variable costs move up or down based on how much the car is driven. This is where most hosts under-forecast and lose money.

• Turo Fee: Subtract the percentage Turo takes (usually 10% to 40%) from your gross revenue first.
• Maintenance Reserve: Move $0.10 to $0.20 per estimated mile into a separate account (as discussed in our previous article).
• Cleaning/Supplies: The cost of car washes, detailing sprays, and interior wipes.
• Depreciation: This is the hidden cost. For every 1,000 miles driven, your car's resale value drops. A safe forecast estimate is roughly 1% to 1.5% of the car's total value per month.

Step 4: Run "What-If" Scenarios

A forecast is only useful if it prepares you for the worst. Run three versions of your model to see your "breakeven" point:

1. The Optimist: 80% utilization. (Summer months/Holidays)
2. The Realist: 60% utilization. (Your baseline)
3. The Pessimist: 30% utilization. (Winter/Slow season)

If your Pessimist model shows you losing $400 a month, you must have that amount in your "Cash Buffer" to survive the slow season without defaulting on your car loan.

Quick Forecasting Table

The Takeaway: Know Your Breakeven

Your forecast should tell you exactly how many days per month your car needs to be rented to cover its own costs. For most financed vehicles, the breakeven point is 8 to 12 days. Once you hit that number, every additional day is pure profit.